From The BBC:
A leading think-tank is predicting it may take another five years for income per head to return to the level it was before the recession hit in early 2008.The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) sees total UK GDP falling 4.3% in 2009 before growing 1% in 2010 and 1.8% in 2011. This echoes earlier NIESR forecasts but suggests a slower rate of recovery. NIESR expects government borrowing to hit £165.7bn this year, less than the £175bn the government predicts. The research body sees income per head – GDP per capita – taking until March 2014 to return to the level it was in the first quarter of 2008, when the recession kicked in.
‘Credible plan'”The introduction of a more credible plan to return the public finances to a path of fiscal sustainability remains a necessity,” NIESR said.
And assuming the government keeps to tax plans set out in the Budget, NIESR sees public borrowing hitting £165.7bn in 2009 – or 12% of GDP. Even taking into account “mo…